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After several years of research, and seeing several examples of solar panels installed in the Kirkwood “neighborhood,” I’ve concluded a number of things.
1. Kirkwood has great potential for solar. We have great sun exposure, many sunny days, and cool temperatures that increase the effectiveness of the photovoltaic process that converts sun energy into electricity.
2. Because of our heavy snow, four conditions need to be met to successfully install solar on individual roofs:
a. A southerly exposure. If not due south, a southwesterly exposure is better than a southeasterly exposure.
b. No or minimal shading from trees. A little shading can make a big impact on how much electricity is generated; and it’s expensive to take trees down to get rid of shading.
c. A roof steep enough to naturally shed snow. For typical glass covered solar panels, this probably means a roof pitch of 9 in 12 or steeper. For membrane or shingle type solar, which is more slippery than the glass panels, perhaps an 8 in 12 pitch will work. Note that the roof at the Caples store has a moderately steep pitch; snow often needs to be removed manually to uncover the panels after a storm, which is not practical for most homes in Kirkwood.
d. A metal roof material. Unless solar shingles are used, integrated with normal roofing shingles, metal roofing provides the best covering to avoid roof leaks under the panels, and provides the necessary surface if a membrane type solar material is used.
3. The best opportunity for solar on individual homes is to design the solar into new homes from the beginning. Existing homes, for the most part, do not meet all four of the conditions described above (though it would be interesting to do an inventory of homes to see how many do meet all four conditions).
4. Snow load and wind load on the solar panels need to be considered. Discussions with solar vendors indicate that most panels are designed to accommodate the loads we have in Kirkwood.
5. Another great possibility for solar is pole-mounted solar. Solar panels mounted on a pole high enough off the ground to avoid snow accumulation during the winter are used in 2 nearby places: at the Schneider Caltrans station (system is now abandoned because of lack in investment in replacing their batteries, though they operated very well for 10 years) and on private property near Caples Lake. They are also used in other high mountain locations such as in Colorado. The issue with pole mounted panels, of course, is where to put them.
6. A fact of solar in Kirkwood is: greatest electricity generation occurs at time of least demand (mid summer), and least generation occurs at time of greatest demand (mid winter). So, to make solar work, either the electricity generated needs to be able to go into the Kirkwood grid, or stored in batteries, or both. Ideally, excess electricity causes your electric meter to spin backwards (“net metering”) and goes into the grid for immediate use by others. Note that Al Graf, whose house is the only house in Kirkwood with solar today, has had to experiment with specific equipment to coordinate properly with Mountain Utilities’ relatively poor quality of electricity (that is, electricity that varies more than standard in voltage and cycles per second).
Right now, I believe that the very best and very possible use of solar in Kirkwood is through clusters of pole mounted solar panels, in places like edges of parking lots or other open areas where aesthetic impact is minimal. So far, I’ve not been able to convince the Resort to use their “left over” space near parking lots in this way.
My previous posting was about the feasibility of solar photovoltaic (PV) systems in Kirkwood. But what about the economics of PV in Kirkwood?
The factors to consider are:
1. How much electricity, in kilowatt hours (KWH) will be generated by the system? Research indicates that for Kirkwood, we should expect something between 1,400 KWH and 1, 800 KWH per KW per year of installed solar capacity. If a typical roof system is 3 KW, then perhaps we can expect about 3 x 1,600 = 4,800 KWH of electricity generated per year. Assuming that all the electricity is used immediately or is put into the grid for use by others, than all these KWH have value.
2. The typical cost of a solar PV system appears to be about $9,000 to $9,500 per KW…somewhat more expensive than in more urban areas. The new Federal stimulus legislation now provides for a full 30% tax credit on the cost of a system, so the cost is reduced by about $2,700 per KW.
What about rebates that customers elsewhere in California get from their utilities? No such rebate is available in Kirkwood. MU is not required to provide rebates, and has not collected money from all of us to create a pool of money from which rebates could be paid. I think the best possibility to establish a rebate program in Kirkwood is to apply for a grant to create a pool of rebate money. I believe it may be possible for the PUD to apply for such a grant from the USDA Rural Development program sometime in 2009. The rebate amount might be around $2,000 per KW.
3. The cost of electricity in Kirkwood has varied widely, as everyone knows: from about $0.33 to over $1.00 per KWH over the past year. On average, costs have been roughly $0.50 per KWH. For electricity from solar immediately used in one’s own home, that’s the value of the electricity, because you are avoiding that cost. For electricity put into the MU grid, the value is somewhat less: maybe $0.43 per KWH. For simplicity, assume that the electricity has a value of $0.45 per KWH.
4. For a 3 KW system, the 4,800 KWH have a value of $0.45 x 4,800 = $2,160 per year. The net cost of the system after tax credit is $9,250 x 3 less 30% = $19,425.
So it takes $19,425 / $2,160 = about 9 years to pay for the system through savings on electricity.
This math does not take into account possible increases in electricity costs over time, nor the small decline in solar panel output over time (about 1/2% per year), nor the cost of batteries to store excess electricity if one chooses to do that. Nor does it take into account a possible increase in value of a house with solar. But it does match most calculations I’ve seen, which show that solar PV on residences pay back in 8 to 12 years.